Estimated Media Spending Up? What’s Driving the Increase?

It seems all we hear about is how media budgets are being cut.  But some positive news came out of eMarketer which predicts media spend will increase  5.1% this year.  That number is slightly lower than had originally thought, but yes this is overall good news.  Let’s be wary of what is driving that increase. 

        

•       Politics -- political spend always tightens media inventory which naturally creates higher prices for media.  This supply/demand balance slow burns as caucuses occur state by state.  Then around June onward, inventory significantly constrains as we head into the Presidential election.
•           Olympics – the sporting events put a huge constraint on inventory during the summer months. Advertisers who normally don’t run consistent media schedules do burst media campaigns around the event.
•          Early Holiday Promotion – it seems Christmas shopping literally starts at Halloween.  Special “before” holiday shopping deals are becoming more prevalent.  Look at this new trend to constrain inventory as well.

So before we celebrate the “rise of media” let’s make sure we know the reasons for the increase and realize this might be an abnormal year of spend.

Scott  

And This Year’s Winner of the Oscar Is….

Bottom line the 2016 Academy Awards had a down year for ratings with 34.3 million viewers.  If you compare that to the last 15 years of viewership, it isn’t at the bottom but it’s far from the top of the ratings pyramid.

The show had the diversity controversy written all over the show.  From the opening monologue and mentioned continuously during the show.   I thought Chris Rock did a great job handling a very difficult situation, but at times I got a bit uncomfortable with some of the jokes around the subject.

Could the diversity issue drive down the year’s ratings to the third lowest in 15 years?  Perhaps, but a few other thoughts are worth noting.

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•   Must See TV – in years past I can recall “Oscar Viewing Parties” being held.  There was a sense of excitement.   My take… people aren’t enthused about the program or award.  They feel the content has become dull.
• -          Identity Loss – has Oscar lost his brand?  With the SAG Awards and Golden Globes all proceeding the Academy Awards it seems some of the luster might be a bit tarnished on the Oscar trophy.
• -          Movies – frankly, I had only seen one two of the movies up for the big award.  So the movie product might not have been exciting as years past.  Albeit, seeing if Leonard DeCaprio would win Best Male Performance was intriguing. 
• -          Competition – the show had no competition that night so that excuse is out the window.
• -           Host – Chris Rock was great.  He was dealt a very tough hand.  Striking a balance on diversity, humor and moving the show along had to be incredibly difficult.
• -           Cross promotion – it was very lean.  Little digital components left the show dry.

Ratings for this year and previous years of the show came in at:

2016 34.3 million 

2015 37.3 million 
2014 43.7 million 
2013 40.3 million 

2012 39.3 million 

2011 37.9 million 
2010 41.3 million 
2009 36.3 million 
2008 32.0 million 
2007 40. 2 million 
2006 38.9 million 
2005 42.1 million 
2004 43.5 million 
2003 33.0 million 

2002 41.8 million
2001 42.9 million 

Let’s hope next year’s event is a bit stronger.

Scott

Kim Kardashian vs. Donald Trump

       

This week, Kim K. posted a nude pic of herself on Twitter.   It’s gotten the typical response across the digital ecosphere, including a little “spat” between her and Bette Midler.

At the same time, Donald Trump was taking to social media, press conferences, rallies and the debate stage proclaiming the bravado we’ve seen since June.  But the Donald is really the social media master. Using it to create controversy, keep his name and message front and center….and he’s become the King of Twitter.

Kim K. seems to be playing second fiddle to the Trumpster on Twitter – by not getting the usual limelight.  I suppose we should medical classify this as “Twitter Deficit Syndrome or TDS.”

I suppose posting a nude tweet vs. Trump’s bravado political tweets is helping Kim to be the Queen of Twitter, if nothing but a few days.

Scott